Published, November 14th
The likely clean sweep of the presidency, the Senate and the House by the Republican party should prompt the UK government to propose re-opening trade negotiations and dust off the work that was done in 2020 before it was interrupted by the election.
On the basis of what was said during the campaign being translated into policy, we can expect a slew of measures around tax, trade and regulation all designed to bring economic activity, investment and both manufacturing and service industry jobs back to the USA.
On corporation tax, the federal rate of 21% looks likely to be maintained or maybe even lowered to 15% and there has been discussion of some form of differentiation based on where economic activity takes place; in other words, lower rates if you produce at home. On regulation, we expect to see a more business friendly approach from all regulators being mandated from the center including reduced climate and labor regulation and a relaxing of opposition to large scale mergers and acquisitions. And on trade, which has shot to the top of the agenda in the UK and EU, there has been clear signaling from the next administration that they will use tariffs to further encourage companies who want to sell to America to base their production there.
Read full update, here.